Weekly Analysis
Agent debate, momentum rankings, and risk assessment — 2026-03-25
Weekly Recommendation
2026-03-25 · Bull-Volatile
Rebalance to 75% G Fund / 15% F Fund / 10% I Fund — preserve capital while maintaining minimal equity exposure for a potential momentum inflection, and conserve your remaining IFT capacity.
AI Commentary
The momentum signal recommends 100% I Fund, but all three analysts unanimously reject this as indefensible — I Fund is down -8.3% monthly with 24.2% annualized volatility, and the 'Bull-Volatile' regime label at just 0.53 confidence is misleading given uniformly negative momentum across all equity funds. The council reached rare full consensus that equity correlations at 0.79 render C/S/I diversification illusory, making G Fund the only true hedge. The Macro Analyst sees this as broad macro deterioration — not sector rotation — and warns tariffs may represent a structural regime shift rather than a cyclical headwind, while the Sentiment Analyst counters that approaching Q1 earnings season could trigger a second leg down if companies pre-announce tariff cost warnings, pushing sentiment from -52 toward -70 territory. The Risk Analyst raised a critical operational point: with only two free interfund transfers per month, the asymmetry strongly favors rotating defensive now — the cost of being wrong on the aggressive side (riding a -10%+ drawdown while locked out) far exceeds the cost of missing a bounce. F Fund is failing as a traditional bond hedge due to rate uncertainty, with losses across all timeframes, leaving G Fund as the sole reliable capital preservation vehicle.
Market Regime
Correlation Crisis Detected
Equity correlations above 0.7 (avg: 0.79). Diversification reduced -- increasing G Fund for safety.
Fund Correlations
| C | S | I | F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.34 |
| S | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.72 | 0.32 |
| I | 0.78 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.49 |
| F | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.49 | 1.00 |
AI Research Council
Four agents analyze and debate weekly. Momentum drives allocation -- agents provide context.
Rebalance to 75% G Fund / 15% F Fund / 10% I Fund — preserve capital while maintaining minimal equity exposure for a potential momentum inflection, and conserve your remaining IFT capacity.
Market Commentary
The momentum signal recommends 100% I Fund, but all three analysts unanimously reject this as indefensible — I Fund is down -8.3% monthly with 24.2% annualized volatility, and the 'Bull-Volatile' regime label at just 0.53 confidence is misleading given uniformly negative momentum across all equity funds. The council reached rare full consensus that equity correlations at 0.79 render C/S/I diversification illusory, making G Fund the only true hedge. The Macro Analyst sees this as broad macro deterioration — not sector rotation — and warns tariffs may represent a structural regime shift rather than a cyclical headwind, while the Sentiment Analyst counters that approaching Q1 earnings season could trigger a second leg down if companies pre-announce tariff cost warnings, pushing sentiment from -52 toward -70 territory. The Risk Analyst raised a critical operational point: with only two free interfund transfers per month, the asymmetry strongly favors rotating defensive now — the cost of being wrong on the aggressive side (riding a -10%+ drawdown while locked out) far exceeds the cost of missing a bounce. F Fund is failing as a traditional bond hedge due to rate uncertainty, with losses across all timeframes, leaving G Fund as the sole reliable capital preservation vehicle.
Individual Analyses
Macro Analyst
Fed policy, inflation, yield curves
Markets remain in a deteriorating risk environment with negative momentum, elevated volatility, and weak regime confidence. The I Fund's -8.3% monthly drawdown signals acute international stress likely tied to trade policy uncertainty, while domestic equities continue grinding lower. Maintaining heavy G Fund allocation as the only fund delivering consistent positive returns; F Fund kept neutral as duration risk limits its hedge value in a rate-uncertain environment. Will look to re-risk when SPY momentum turns positive and volatility compresses below 0.60.
Sentiment Analyst
VIX, put/call ratios, fund flows
Market sentiment remains firmly risk-off as tariff-driven uncertainty and negative momentum across all equity TSP funds reinforce defensive positioning. The absence of dip-buying despite multi-week declines suggests institutional distribution rather than healthy consolidation, while the accelerating I Fund weakness (-8.3% monthly) points to global contagion fears. Sentiment is bearish but not yet at contrarian extremes — recommend maintaining heavy G Fund allocation until momentum inflects and fear indicators reach washout levels.
Risk Manager
VaR, correlations, tail risk
The proposed 100% I-fund allocation is reckless given active correlation crisis, Risk-Off macro, and deeply negative sentiment — all three risk signals are flashing red simultaneously. With equity correlations at 0.79, spreading across C/S/I barely reduces risk, so a meaningful G/F allocation (45%) is essential as a volatility dampener. Retaining 55% equity with an I-fund tilt preserves upside exposure to international momentum while cutting portfolio VaR roughly in half.
Strategy Arbiter
Synthesizes into recommendation
{"market_commentary":"The momentum signal recommends 100% I Fund, but all three analysts unanimously reject this as indefensible — I Fund is down -8.3% monthly with 24.2% annualized volatility, and th
Momentum Rankings
Blended 42/63-day returns as of 2026-03-23
Negative momentum funds excluded (capital to G Fund).
Strategy Backtest
3-way ensemble, Wednesday rebalance — 15.7 years