TSP Nerd — TSP Allocation Dashboard
Equity Curves
FULL EQUITY — BOTH SIGNALS CLEAR
Both signals clear — momentum runs in C Fund
combined verdict
Full G Fund only when both signals flash bear. Either alone is informational (Watch state). Updated 2026-05-22 22:13
Current Allocation
Monthly Transfers
of 2 used
0 remaining
Only G Fund moves allowed · G moves are free
Transfer Deadline
Strategy Performance
Growth of $100,000 since 2010
Total Return
1314%
16yr backtest
Sharpe Ratio
1.192
risk-adjusted
Max Drawdown
-32.0%
vs C: -33.7%
AI Research Council
Four agents analyze and debate every Monday. Momentum drives allocation -- agents provide market context.
Hold 100% C Fund per RADAR, but treat this as a high-tension hold — review allocation immediately if Brent breaches $110 or if Big Tech earnings break the mega-cap leadership.
Market Commentary
The week ahead is dominated by Big Tech earnings (Alphabet's beat already set a high bar) layered on a price-narrative divergence that all three agents flagged: a +9.4% monthly C Fund tape colliding with a -22 sentiment reading and four independently bearish, high-credibility narratives (PTJ, NYT, Cramer's Iran warning, the 2022-analog). For TSP, the RADAR signal holds 100% C Fund — a full-momentum posture that the Macro Analyst defends as the correct response to a Fed-pivot window with no confirmed regime break, while the Risk Manager dissents hard, arguing that zero G/F exposure in a 0.83-correlation, geopolitically-stressed tape is the single largest unhedged risk on the book and would prefer a 70% equity cap. The Sentiment Analyst sided with Risk, pushing for 40-45% C and 25% G, warning that reflexive passive-flow reversal has 'no rotation hiding place' inside equities. The Macro counter is sharp: bearish sentiment here is fundamentally grounded, not a contrarian buy — but melt-ups historically extend 6-18 months before resolving, and under-allocating during a Fed pivot is itself a tail risk. The unifying overlooked danger: an Iran-driven oil shock through $110 Brent that simultaneously kills the equity bid AND repriced duration, breaking the G+F defensive assumption Risk leans on. Note: last week's arbiter call (Iran-ceasefire relief rally) was wrong — the tape printed Bear-Volatile, a humility check on confidence in any single narrative this week.
Where the Agents Disagree
Position: 100% C Fund is structurally fragile; correlation crisis means concentration is the real exposure, and zero G/F in this tape is the single largest unhedged risk on the book. Wants 70% equity cap with 25% G+F.
Counter: Macro Analyst argues that at a 20-year horizon with stable federal income, defensive tilts during a Fed-pivot window carry their own opportunity-cost tail; melt-ups extend 6-18 months historically, and under-allocation is itself a risk.
Arbiter: Risk is directionally correct on asymmetry but operationally early. The RADAR signal earned its 100% C posture from a tested rules-based regime read, and overriding it on narrative grounds is exactly what burned us last week (Iran-ceasefire call). Hold the signal, but Risk's framing should govern the response speed if the tape breaks.
Position: Bearish sentiment here is an early-warning system, not a contrarian buy — Macro's 'Neutral' rating understates asymmetry and Risk's 55% C is still too high; wants C at 40-45%, G at 25%.
Counter: Macro warns that treating a fundamentally-grounded bearish narrative (Iran, valuations, PTJ math) as a contrarian buy is wrong — but treating it as confirming caution rather than as a trigger to override systematic allocation is the disciplined response.
Arbiter: Sentiment's reflexivity point — that passive-flow reversal in a 0.83-correlation tape cascades violently — is the most underweighted risk in the room. But discretionary de-risking ahead of a signal change has a worse historical record than holding the system. Sentiment is right about the danger; wrong about the intervention.
Position: Neutral with downside skew is the right read; Bull-Volatile precedes drawdowns but melt-ups extend 6-18 months, and a Fed-pivot under-allocation is a real cost.
Counter: Risk pushed back that citing PTJ's 35% crash warning, an 'over-equitized' economy, and a 2022-analog flash is not a Neutral fact pattern — it is a defensive fact pattern dressed as Neutral.
Arbiter: Risk wins the rhetorical exchange — Macro's evidence list does skew bearish — but Macro is correct that converting it to a Cautious rating without a confirmed regime change is premature. The compromise is honesty: the signal is 100% C, the evidence stack is asymmetrically bearish, and both can be true.
Where They Agree
- Regime is Bull-Volatile with classic late-cycle melt-up signature
- Iran sanctions fracture + oil shock is the dominant unhedged tail risk
- Intra-equity correlation at 0.83 makes C/S/I diversification illusory
- Price-narrative divergence (-22 sentiment vs +9.4% tape) is a structural warning sign
Risks to Watch
- Brent crude breaching $110 on Iran sanctions fracture — kills equity bid AND F Fund duration thesis simultaneously
- Big Tech earnings disappointment from any of the five reporters this week — mega-cap concentration means a single miss reprices the index
- Reflexive passive-flow reversal triggered by mainstream bearish coverage (NYT 'Makes No Sense', PTJ 35% call) cascading through 0.83-correlation tape
- 2022-analog technical signal resolving to the bearish side — historical base rate is sharp drawdown within 1-3 months
- Fed pivot optionality lost if oil shock pushes core CPI back up — eliminates the bullish scenario underpinning current melt-up
Individual Analyses
Macro Analyst
Fed policy, inflation, yield curves
Bull-Volatile regime with strong momentum but escalating Iran risk and over-extended mega-cap concentration argues for a Neutral stance — ride the trend but don't chase. Favor I Fund on relative strength and dollar weakness, underweight F (yields offer no cushion) and S (small caps lagging in risk-off pivots), keep C neutral pending Big Tech earnings verdict.
Sentiment Analyst
VIX, put/call ratios, fund flows
Sentiment is bearish-leaning despite the strongest monthly equity tape in months — a textbook Bull-Volatile divergence where narrative anxiety (PTJ, 2022-analog, Iran spillover) collides with momentum-driven price gains concentrated in mega-cap tech. The setup favors caution because the bullish leg depends on Big Tech earnings continuation while the bearish leg has multiple independent catalysts (geopolitics, valuation, late-cycle indicators). With F Fund offering no refuge, defensive G Fund tilt and reduced C/S exposure makes sense if any allocation change were on the table — but this is a commentary week, so the read is: ride existing positioning into earnings, watch for Iran escalation and any Big Tech miss as the trigger for a regime flip to Bear-Volatile.
Risk Manager
VaR, correlations, tail risk
100% C-Fund allocation is structurally fragile given the correlation crisis (0.83) — no diversification benefit exists across equities, so concentration risk is effectively the same whether held in C, S, or I. With geopolitical tail risks (Iran conflict, sanctions), bearish sentiment (-22), and a Bull-Volatile regime, I recommend trimming equity to ~75% with a 25% G/F defensive sleeve to harvest premium while preserving optionality for a drawdown reload. Commentary week — RADAR's signal stands, but position sizing should respect that the next 5% move is more likely down than up.
Strategy Arbiter
Synthesizes into recommendation
The week ahead is dominated by Big Tech earnings (Alphabet's beat already set a high bar) layered on a price-narrative divergence that all three agents flagged: a +9.4% monthly C Fund tape colliding with a -22 sentiment reading and four independently bearish, high-credibility narratives (PTJ, NYT, Cramer's Iran warning, the 2022-analog). For TSP, the RADAR signal holds 100% C Fund — a full-momentum posture that the Macro Analyst defends as the correct response to a Fed-pivot window with no confirmed regime break, while the Risk Manager dissents hard, arguing that zero G/F exposure in a 0.83-correlation, geopolitically-stressed tape is the single largest unhedged risk on the book and would prefer a 70% equity cap. The Sentiment Analyst sided with Risk, pushing for 40-45% C and 25% G, warning that reflexive passive-flow reversal has 'no rotation hiding place' inside equities. The Macro counter is sharp: bearish sentiment here is fundamentally grounded, not a contrarian buy — but melt-ups historically extend 6-18 months before resolving, and under-allocating during a Fed pivot is itself a tail risk. The unifying overlooked danger: an Iran-driven oil shock through $110 Brent that simultaneously kills the equity bid AND repriced duration, breaking the G+F defensive assumption Risk leans on. Note: last week's arbiter call (Iran-ceasefire relief rally) was wrong — the tape printed Bear-Volatile, a humility check on confidence in any single narrative this week.
Council last met: 2026-04-30